
Text | Jinjiao Finance, Author | Xiao Di
A car saves 70,000 yuan and 30 seconds, and the subsidy is not limited by price … …
With the help of policies, enterprises and giants, the ideal mode of replacing electricity and replenishing energy for new energy vehicles is accelerating from B-end to C-end.
Recently, Sinopec, one of the "three barrels of oil", has added power generation, transmission and power supply business to its business scope, selling automobiles, motor vehicle charging and new energy vehicle power exchange facilities.
This means that,The oil sales giant will officially enter the power exchange..
On December 7, Sinopec Guangzhou Jinlong Gas Station was unveiled after the revision and upgrade. This is the 1000th charging and replacing power station and the 1000th photovoltaic power station completed and put into operation by Sinopec. This gas station is equipped with the second generation power exchange technology, which can exchange power for up to 312 Weilai cars every day, and the owner doesn’t even need to get off the bus during the power exchange process.
By 2025, Sinopec plans to build 5,000 charging and replacing power stations and 7,000 photovoltaic power stations.
The scene described by Zhang Yuzhuo, the chairman of China Petrochemical Company, seems to be somewhat idealistic: "China Petrochemical Company has more than 30,000 gas stations in the country, and will embrace the general trend of energy reform, and gradually deploy power exchange facilities in gas stations, so that users of new energy vehicles can change electricity as easily as refueling."
Back in 2011, domestic electric vehicles have just started. The State Grid has announced that charging stations should adopt the mode of replacing electricity with charging as a supplement to reduce the burden on urban power grids, and some experts have proposed it."integration of oil and electricity"The idea of rational allocation of land resources.
At that time, the new energy car track was not as crowded as it is now. The players were mainly state-owned enterprises, and the use scenarios were still limited to buses and taxis. However, the power exchange mode has been proved to be a false proposition.
In addition to the cost, the biggest problem encountered by this model is that the battery standards are not uniform, the battery manufacturers that each electric vehicle cooperates with are different, and the battery specifications produced are different.The capacity of a power exchange station is limited, so it is impossible to give consideration to both brand and quantity, and the most basic scale is difficult to achieve..
Today, these problems still exist, even with more and more players, the battery specifications that were difficult to unify in the past have become even more embarrassing.
Time has passed. When the new energy automobile industry, which encounters new obstacles in its development, meets the oil giant that needs to be turned around urgently, can the stagnant water of changing electricity create new ripples?
The answer is extremely difficult, because it is equivalent to the half-life of the car company.
It is a historical necessity that power exchange is brought up again. At present, the mainstream charging mode is far from meeting the energy demand of new energy vehicles.
An electric car becomes an "electric dad" and only needs a long trip.
During this year’s National Day holiday, the most famous news about new energy vehicles was that electric car owners fought for charging piles, and charged for one hour and stood in line for four hours … … In the face of the surge in energy demand, chronic diseases such as insufficient construction of public charging piles and lack of operation are exposed.
Over the years, charging piles have continued to catch up with new energy vehicles, but the pace is obviously not big enough.The data shows that the vehicle-pile ratio of new energy vehicles and charging piles has dropped from 7.84 in 2015 to 2.93 in 2020. Everbright Securities predicts that by 2030, the vehicle-pile ratio will gradually drop to 2, that is, two vehicles share a charging pile, but this is far from a reasonable ratio of 1.
According to the data released by China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, as of October this year, the cumulative number of charging infrastructure in China was 2.253 million, up 50.4% year-on-year. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in October this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 397,000 and 383,000 respectively, an increase of 130% year-on-year.
In addition, these data also contain many widely criticized "zombie piles", that is, charging piles that are damaged but not repaired in time.
In this context, the more convenient power exchange mode has regained attention.
In 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encouraged the pilot of the power exchange model, the policy was opened, and the market began to respond quickly.
Enterprise investigation shows that there are 67,500 existing power exchange-related enterprises in China, of which 3,710 were added in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 27.98%; In 2020, there will be an increase of 16,600, a year-on-year increase of 348.71%;In the first 10 months of this year, it increased by 33,600, a year-on-year increase of 184.83%..
The market scale is rising. According to Toubao Research Institute, in 2020, China’s new energy vehicle power exchange market will be only 38.2 billion yuan, but by 2030,The scale of power exchange market will reach 1,035.6 billion., an increase of 27 times in ten years.
Power exchange enterprises can be roughly divided into two categories: third-party operators facing B-end, such as Aodong New Energy and Hangzhou Botan Technology, and OEMs facing C-end, such as Weilai, BAIC, which has been exploring the field of power exchange for many years, and Nezha, Tucki &hellip, which are planning to change power; …
However, in the field of power exchange, no matter the size of the enterprise, it faces a dilemma — —have a deficit. Beiqi New Energy once said that,The construction cost of a power station is nearly 10 million yuan.The cost of battery reserve reached 3.22 million yuan. Huge capital investment and a long investment return period of 5-6 years pose great challenges to enterprises.
Among the enterprises listed above, Aodong is the largest power exchange operator in China. Although it has received large orders from state-owned enterprises such as BAIC and SAIC in the past five years, it is only profitable in Xiamen and Guangzhou, and the utilization rate of power exchange stations in most cities is below 60%. Bertram Technology is also looking for mergers and acquisitions.
In terms of vehicle manufacturers, since 2019, Weilai has laid out nearly 500 power stations across the country. Without considering land rent, labor costs, equipment depreciation, maintenance and other expenses, the construction cost of a single power station is about 2 million yuan. In this way,Weilai has invested at least 1 billion yuan in power exchange in the past three years..
Weilai once proposed to build 1,100 power exchange stations nationwide in 2020, but until now, half of this goal has not been achieved.
As a dawn of the power exchange industry, before this high-profile plan was written into the business scope, Sinopec’s power exchange layout has begun.
In April this year, Sinopec first signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Aodong, clarifying that the two sides will carry out all-round and in-depth cooperation around the construction and operation of power exchange stations, the upgrading of energy replenishment technology and the innovation of business models. In the future, a "national power exchange service network" will be built. In July, the first batch of power exchange stations jointly operated by Aodong and Sinopec landed in Shanghai and Chongqing. Coincidentally, Wei Lai also chose to hold the giant’s thigh after going through a difficult fight alone. Also in April, Sinopec and Weilai cooperated to build Beijing Sinopec Chaoying Station, which was officially put into operation.
At present,It is too early to say that such cooperation is a "win-win", but it is also a "take what you need".
In Sinopec, as Zhang Yuzhuo said, supporting electricity exchange is a strategy for traditional oil companies to embrace the general trend of energy reform; For players in the power exchange industry, one of the most intuitive benefits is that Sinopec’s gas stations all over the country have solved the most troublesome problem of site selection and rent for power exchange. In addition, with the support of state-owned capital, the long road of burning money for power exchange can also be easier.
Almost all areas of new energy vehicles areStart with policy and thrive on policy..
In 2019, the policy pointed out the direction for various enterprises in the power exchange industry. After that, the gradually complete top-level design installed engines and insurance for the development of power exchange.
In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments promulgated a new version of the subsidy policy for new energy passenger cars, stipulating that the price of vehicles before subsidies should be below 300,000 yuan (including 300,000 yuan).However, vehicles in the power exchange mode enjoy the green light of the policy and are not subject to price restrictions.. Subsequently, the power station was included in the category of "new infrastructure".
In November, 2020, the State Council promulgated the New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035), which clearly put forward "strengthening the construction of power exchange infrastructure" and "encouraging the development of power exchange mode application". In March this year, adding charging piles and changing power stations was written into the government work report.
In addition, relevant standards have gradually landed. In April this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Automobile Standardization Technical Committee and other departments issued the first basic general standard in the field of power exchange, "Safety Requirements for Power Exchange of Electric Vehicles", which was implemented on November 1.
The significance of building a power exchange station is not only to replenish energy.
From a more macro perspective,The significance of power exchange lies in centralized management of power batteries and building a system for power batteries.. This system includes production, assembly, charging, maintenance, monitoring, and the most difficult problem of power battery recycling, and finally realizes the cascade utilization of power batteries.
Ten years ago, the plan of "replacing electricity" by State Grid was based on the idea of "cutting peaks and filling valleys", that is, building charging and replacing power stations near substations to avoid a big impact on the distribution network; In the urban center where land resources are tight or the power grid is difficult to expand and transform, a centralized battery charging station will be built by relying on substations in the suburbs.
Today, relying on the construction of gas stations to change power stations is essentially throughDistributed energy storage, to reduce the burden of urban power grid.
Ecological chain of power exchange business (Source: Everbright Securities)
From the micro level, on the one hand, power exchange is a kind ofSafer way to replenish energy. According to "Analysis of Fire Accidents of Electric Vehicles in 2020", according to incomplete statistics, in 2020, the media reported 124 fire accidents of new energy vehicles, of which 23% were accidentally burned during charging.
In this mode, the charging environment of the battery can be controlled, and the battery failure can be detected in time to reduce the risk of spontaneous combustion.
On the other hand,The power exchange mode is undoubtedly a kind of high efficiency, even exceeding the traditional fuel vehicle.And it is more conducive to the way to prolong the battery life. At present, the emergency fast charging time of new energy vehicles is 1-2 hours, and the full charging time is 6-8 hours, but the high voltage DC fast charging method is a kind of damage to the battery.
Back to the most fundamental problem, the underlying logic of power exchange lies in"separation of vehicle and electricity"That is to subvert the relationship between power batteries and people — —From buying in the past to renting..
Take Weilai’s power exchange mode as an example, the owner only needs to bear the "battery rental service fee". The data shows that the price of a seven-seat version of ES8 is close to 470,000 yuan. If you rent Weilai’s battery,The optional battery pack with a battery life of 420 kilometers can be 70,000 yuan cheaper, and the optional battery pack with a battery life of 580 kilometers can be 128,000 yuan cheaper..
They can afford 71.4 months and 86.5 months’ rent respectively.
At present, the service life of the lithium battery pack carried by new energy vehicles is generally between 3 and 5 years.
For consumers, this greatly reduces the price of new energy vehicles and improves the service life of new energy vehicles.
It can be seen that the ultimate goal of power exchange policy support,Or lower the purchase threshold of new energy vehicles to solve the current energy anxiety..
Last year, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 25.225 million and 25.311 million respectively, but the production and sales of new energy vehicles were only 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, among which the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 1.105 million and 1.115 million respectively, that is to say, pure electric vehicles only accounted for 4.4% of the annual sales, while new energy vehicles accounted for 5.4%, and fuel vehicles remained the mainstream of the automobile market.
Obstacles such as high price and less energy-supplementing infrastructure make the market not enthusiastic about new energy vehicles.
And as the 3060 carbon neutral target gets closer and closer,All kinds of problems from application to popularization of new energy vehicles are being solved rapidly under the dual effects of planning and market..
Almost everything is ready, but the most critical east wind — — Industry standardization has not come yet. Standardization can not be achieved, which means that the marginalized position of power exchange in the system can not be changed.
As one of the three major structures of electric vehicles, power battery has always been regarded as a moat for enterprises by OEMs.
Almost all car companies hope to increase product selling points by designing batteries with larger capacity, stronger performance and lower cost. Tesla’s battery team was set up in 2004, 12 years earlier than the self-developed chip. The news that its high-capacity 4680 battery has been developed for many years has attracted the attention of the global market. In China, although BYD’s self-developed "blade battery" has been questioned, it still contributed to the soaring share price of 300% last year. In the first half of this year, BYD Han’s sales with "blade battery" increased by more than 200% year-on-year.
In fact, battery standardization means letting automakers give up most of their power to define their own products.That’s why the power exchange was opposed by the automobile factory as early as ten years ago.
However, this time is different.
Under the goal of "double carbon", the strength of national policies and state-owned capital is overweight, which is standardizing manufacturing conditions and clearing obstacles for power exchange. In July last year, at the press conference in the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would continue to vigorously promote the infrastructure construction of charging and replacing electricity, encourage enterprises to develop models of replacing electricity according to applicable scenarios, and support pilot projects in places like Beijing and Hainan for promotion. After that, the governments of Anhui, Yunnan, Shanghai, Hainan and Henan successively put forward the construction plan of power exchange station.
The determined trend is making enterprises in the field of power exchange bolder than in the past.— — In addition to in-depth cooperation with Sinopec, Weilai announced that it will deploy more than 4,000 power stations worldwide by the end of 2025; Aodong also said that it will complete the construction goal of 10,000 power stations in five years; GCL Energy plans to build 6,000 power stations during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, serving 500,000 vehicles … …
Force standardization by scale,This bottom-up development ideaObviously, it is clearer than ten years.
Standardization is the inevitable result of power exchange, and the power exchange enterprises that entered the market early are becoming the standards themselves.Take the future as an example. Since the release of the power exchange mode, Li Bin has been releasing signals to the outside world. Wuhan Weineng gives priority to serving Weilai automobile users. However, as an open platform, it is its long-term goal for different companies to participate in the use of Wuhan Weineng’s BaaS system, and the premise of cooperation is that automobile enterprises must adopt the same battery pack specifications and standards as Weilai automobile.
Among the power exchange industry standards formulated by the National Energy Administration, Weilai took the lead in compiling three standards, namely, 10435, 10436 and 33025, and deeply participated in compiling two standards, namely, 10434 and 33004.
In addition, Geely and BAIC, the third-party operators of power exchange, Aodong and Botan Technology, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the battery manufacturer, all played an important role in the formulation of national and industrial standards for power exchange.
Enterprises that change electricity early are taking the first-Mover advantage.
It took ten years for the initial answer of changing electricity and new energy vehicles to be initially applied.
However, if we look to the future, there is still more way to go before power exchange becomes the optimal solution.
On the one hand, today, the power battery has not formed a stable structure like the engine of a traditional fuel vehicle.It is still undergoing a subversive update.Today’s sodium battery, tomorrow’s hydrogen fuel cell & HELIP; …
Compared with the current unified lithium battery standard, it is more difficult to change the power at the end on a large scale.How to catch up with the pace of power battery after the popularization of high cost.
On the other hand,Power exchange puts forward higher requirements for battery capacity.. The power exchange mode has changed the one-to-one relationship between new energy vehicles and batteries. To meet the needs of a car, a battery is obviously not enough.
However, insufficient battery capacity is a major pain point in the new energy automobile industry. This year, Tucki, Weilai and other automakers have delayed delivery due to extremely tight battery supply. Under the seriously unbalanced supply, the rumor that "He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, crouched at the door of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited for batteries" was once widely circulated in the industry.
In other words,The requirement of one battery per vehicle has put tremendous pressure on the upstream production capacity, not to mention the situation of more than one battery per vehicle.