China will announce the semi-annual report of 265 CPI companies in July.
Zhongxin Jingwei client August 9 (Wu Yihan) This week, the price of gold has been constantly hitting a record high, and the international gold price has now exceeded the threshold of 2000 US dollars/ounce. Next week (August 10-August 16), what major financial events may affect your "money bag"? Let’s look ahead together!
Data release
Next week, China will release July CPI, PPI, M2, social financing scale, fixed assets investment, total retail sales of social consumer goods and other data; Internationally, the United States will release data such as CPI and PPI in July and the number of jobless claims in the first week of August 8, the European Union and Germany will release data such as the ZEW economic prosperity index in August, and the United Kingdom and France will release the second quarter GDP data.
Market hotspot
First, 265 companies will disclose semi-annual reports next week.
The disclosure of A-share performance began to accelerate. According to the pre-disclosure schedule of regular reports of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, 265 companies will disclose the performance of the semi-annual report in 2020 next week, with the largest number next Friday evening, with a total of 101 semi-annual reports being disclosed intensively, followed by 56 companies next Monday evening.
At present, 99 of the above-mentioned 265 companies have made performance forecasts, including 27 pre-increased, 13 slightly increased, 1 continued profit, 8 turned losses, 7 pre-decreased, 10 slightly decreased, 10 continued losses, 14 first losses and 9 uncertain.
Second, the first phase of this year’s savings bonds will be released on August 10th.
According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance, savings bonds will be issued on August 10th in 2020, and the first and second savings bonds (electronic) will be issued from August 10th to August 19th in 2020. Among them, the electronic savings bonds pays interest annually, and investors can choose to buy it at the underwriting bank outlets or directly online; Voucher-style savings bonds will repay the principal and interest once due, and investors can only buy it at bank outlets.
According to the announcement, the first phase of savings bonds has a term of 3 years, with an annual coupon rate of 3.8% and a maximum issuance of 30 billion yuan; The second phase has a term of five years, the annual coupon rate is 3.97%, and the maximum issue amount is 30 billion yuan. Interest will be paid on August 10, 2020 for the two periods of savings bonds, and the interest will be paid annually on August 10 every year. The first installment will repay the principal and pay the interest for the last year on August 10, 2023; The second phase will repay the principal and pay the interest for the last year on August 10, 2025.
Third, 400 billion MLF expires.
Next week, 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire in the open market, and 400 billion yuan of MLF funds will expire on August 15. This Friday, the central bank launched a total of 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, which is the only time the central bank launched reverse repurchase this week. This week, 280 billion yuan of central bank reverse repurchase expired, achieving a net return of 270 billion yuan throughout the week.
According to Northeast Securities Research Report, on the whole, the liquidity gap in August was mainly affected by factors such as fiscal expenditure, centralized issuance of special bonds and expiration of MLF. The liquidity gap in August was about 1.3 trillion. According to the operation rules of the previous months, it is expected that the central bank will make a one-time sequel to the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) in mid-August.
Four, the central bank issued a 30 billion yuan central bank bill in Hong Kong.
On August 13th, the People’s Bank of China will issue the seventh and eighth central bank bills in 2020 through the bond bidding platform of CMU of Hong Kong Monetary Authority, with a total amount of 30 billion yuan. The face value of the bills is RMB 100 yuan, and they will be issued by Dutch tender, with the interest rate as the tender target.
5. Large-scale conferences will be held in many places across the country next week.
Domestic exhibition activities are being resumed one after another. Next week, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Qingdao and other places will hold related large-scale conference activities.
From August 14th to 16th, the 8th China Electronic Information Expo will be held in Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center. With the theme of "Innovation Sharing, Open Cooperation", this Expo will be held online and offline, and will be held in the form of five exhibitions in conjunction with China Electronics Show, China Car Networking Industry Exhibition, Shenzhen International Big Data and Storage Exhibition and Shenzhen International Robotics and Intelligent Systems Expo. It is estimated that the exhibition area will be nearly 100,000 square meters, and more than 1,200 enterprises will participate.
From August 13th to August 15th, the 21st China Expo will be held in Shanghai New International Expo Center, with an exhibition scale of 150,000 square meters, bringing together more than 1,800 well-known environmental protection enterprises from 24 countries, and fully demonstrating the solutions for water, solid waste, air, soil and noise pollution control in the global municipal, industrial and rural fields.
From August 10th to August 15th, the theme was "Reform, Opening-up and Innovation Leading — — The 22nd annual meeting of China Association for Science and Technology will be co-sponsored by China Association for Science and Technology and Shandong Provincial People’s Government, with the main venue in Qingdao. During the six-day conference, more than 30 activities in five series will be organized, and "2020 Major Scientific Problems and Engineering and Technical Problems" will be released to create a rich "Annual Conference Week".
Sixth, the EU’s second evaluation of economic growth data in the second quarter
Eurostat will release the second evaluation data of economic growth in the second quarter on August 14th. In the data released on July 31st, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union and the euro zone decreased by 11.9% and 12.1% respectively in the second quarter of this year, down by 14.4% and 15% respectively. This is the biggest economic decline since the EU began to have relevant statistics in 1995.
Frontier of stock market
I. Opportunities for new shares
A total of 18 new shares will be listed for subscription next week.
On August 10th (next Monday), five shares of Kangtai Medicine (subscription code: 300869), Jiemeite (subscription code: 300868), Shengyuan Environmental Protection (subscription code: 300867), Anbiping (subscription code: 787393) and Zhengfan Technology (subscription code: 787596) will be opened.
On August 11th (next Tuesday), four shares of Time and Space Technology (subscription code: 707178), Huisheng Bio (subscription code: 300871), Eurolink (subscription code: 300870) and Nanda Environment (subscription code: 300864) started subscription.
On August 12th (next Wednesday), four shares of Mengtai Gaoxin (subscription code: 300876), Tianyang Technology (subscription code: 300872), Haichen (subscription code: 300873) and Changhong Hi-Tech (subscription code: 707008) started subscription.
On August 13th (next Thursday), 5 shares of Weikang Pharmaceutical (subscription code: 300878), Jinchun Shares (subscription code: 300877), Parker New Materials (subscription code: 707123), Tianpu Shares (subscription code: 707255) and Jiankai Technology (subscription code: 787356) were opened.
Second, institutions look at the market outlook
Guosheng Strategy: science and technology innovation board will become the main battlefield in August.
In August, science and technology innovation board will become the main battlefield. Mainly because of the following three factors: First, the stock funds are still in a low allocation, and incremental funds are also continuing to enter the market; Second, in the second half of the year, the fundamentals of the science and technology growth sector will improve marginally, and many sub-sectors will prosper; Third, the peak of lifting the ban on July 22 will provide a "golden pit" and become the starting point for science and technology innovation.
Up to now, the market’s worries about lifting the ban have gradually eased, and at the same time, science and technology innovation board’s profit and growth advantages have emerged in the interim period. More importantly, with the release of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the filing and issuance of funds in science and technology innovation board has been accelerated, and with the targeted watering of funds in the follow-up market, it is optimistic that science and technology innovation board will become the main battlefield in August.
Sino-Thai macro: judging the gold market needs to pay attention to the Fed policy.
Recently, the performance of gold is very bright, constantly hitting record highs. At the current point, whether the big market of gold will end or continue, it is very important to observe the rhythm of the Fed’s currency overshoot. For example, the last bull market of gold for more than a decade ended in 2013, which has a lot to do with the slowdown in the pace of the Fed’s over-issuance of money.
Judging from the current situation, the American epidemic broke out for the second time, and the economic indicators stopped recovering, far from the time when the monetary stimulus policy was withdrawn. As long as the Fed’s currency overshoot continues, the big market for gold will not be over yet. It is very important to pay close attention to the changes of American economic indicators and the changes of the Fed’s attitude towards monetary stimulus policy. Once the relevant direction changes, the logic of many asset allocation in the past few months may be greatly reversed.
Guangdong opening strategy: there is still room for improvement in the market outlook.
As the current Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes are running near the previous high level, the market is vulnerable to news stimulation and fluctuates greatly. On August 7 (Friday), the external disturbance factors started again, and on the last trading day of Friday, the market appeared risk aversion, which was the main reason for the decline of the stock index on August 7.
Although there are disturbing factors in the market, judging from the trend on Friday, the index still has upward momentum after bottoming out, and the index is still expected to go up to the previous high point to absorb the resistance, waiting for a new round of trend opportunities promoted by incremental funds and policy dividends. At present, the policy environment is more positive, and continuous favorable policies will be conducive to the upward development of the subsequent market, giving priority to the sectors with strong certainty in the short term.