Looking forward to the May 1 ST file： ＂King of the Sky＂ will break the box office record？ Who is the 1 billion+dark horse？
Wen | Zhao Erba Dao
This is the first May 1st shift since the "recovery", and it is also a long-awaited holiday.
At the same time, it is also a rather crowded film schedule, with a variety of films. Up to now, nearly 20 films have been announced to enter the May Day schedule this year (and a few have been withdrawn), and the number has exceeded the same period of previous years, including the popular King of the Sky, Countdown Love You, Nightlife in Changsha, Unfamiliar Road in Life, and Out of Fire, which are very lively and competitive.
So, in the coming May Day holiday, which film will be the winner in the market? Which one or several films have become dark horses at the box office?
Looking back on the May 1st movie market over the years, this paper analyzes the scale, rise and characteristics of May 1st movie.
For a long time, the May Day file was a relatively small file period, and it was more regarded as the transition between the Spring Festival file and the summer file.
According to the data, before the epidemic, the total box office revenue of the May 1st file accounted for a small proportion of the annual box office, which was 660 million in 2016, 780 million in 2017 and 1.01 billion in 2018. After that, the May 1st file began to break out and became a very important movie schedule:
According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, in 2016, the winner of the May 1st box office was Love Letter from Beijing Meeting Seattle, the runner-up was Fantasy Forest, followed by Phantom of the Magic Palace and Dream Partner, and the final box office was 786 million, 779 million, 88.401 million and 80.986 million respectively.
In 2017, the top 51 movies were Speed and Passion 8, Shock Wave 2’s Master of Memory, Like You and Saving Zhiming with Spring Jiao, with final box office of 2.671 billion, 400 million, 292 million, 210 million and 175 million respectively.
In 2018, The Later Us, The Behind-the-scenes Player and The Furious Beast led the box office in Ready Player One, with the final box office of 1.361 billion, 358 million, 1.003 billion and 1.396 billion respectively;
By 2019, the box office income during the May 1st period was close to 2 billion yuan, among which Avengers 4, as the final work of the series, can be said to occupy most of the market share, and finally the box office reached 4.25 billion yuan, followed by Why Be Home and The Former, which reached 376 million and 138 million respectively. During the May 1st period in 2021, My Love won the championship with 512 million box office, Zhang Yimou’s Above the Cliff ranked second with 505 million, and Secret Visitor ranked third with 190 million. The box office of these three films finally reached 789 million, 1.191 billion and 214 million respectively.
Through the performance of the May 1st movie market from 2016 to 2022, we can actually see some laws:
First of all, the overall box office is on the rise, from the initial 660 million to the current scale of approaching or breaking through 2 billion;
Secondly, the single-chip box office should not be underestimated. As early as 2016, the box office champion of the May 1 ST file could get 780 million box office. After that, movies that broke the box office of 1 billion began to become common in the May 1 ST file.
Thirdly, in terms of film types, commercial blockbusters did well in May 1st, such as Reunion 4, Speed and Passion 8, Ready Player One, etc., but May 1st is also a harvest season for romantic films, and My Love’s Beijing meets Seattle and Later are all very typical romantic films with very successful box office.
In addition, dark horses are also very common during the May 1st period. More importantly, the influence of May 1st movies actually has a long tail effect. For example, Above the Cliff is a typical movie that keeps a good growth rate at the box office after holidays.
Learning from the old, I have the following expectations for the upcoming May 1st in 2023, like Reading Entertainment Jun and many friends who love movies:
1. Can the total box office return to the growth rate before the epidemic and reach or exceed 2 billion during the May Day holiday? During this period, whether 2 ~ 3 movies can break through 1 billion+at the box office is also an important concern of the May 1 ST file;
2, domestic films, single box office can break the previous schedule record? The films released during the May 1 ST period, which finally broke the box office by 2 billion, are all overseas blockbusters. Then, will this record be broken in 2023? The performance of King of the Sky is worth looking forward to;
3, will the dark horse film appear, whether the romantic film can reproduce its previous glory and so on.
Who is the most crowded May 1st stall in 2023? Who is the dark horse?
Up to now, 19 films have been announced to enter this year’s "May 1 ST" file, the number of which has exceeded the same period in previous years. The types of films involve action films, suspense films, romantic films, comedies, historical films, cartoons, etc. However, the popularity of these films in the announcement stage and the expectations of the audience have already varied widely.
Chen Jin, a data analyst of Lighthouse Professional Edition, said that this is obviously a positive signal, which makes the film have a more adequate announcement cycle. Indeed, the preheating situation of this May 1st file is quite lively, and the pre-sale figures are also very powerful.
According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 20: 30 on April 24, the total box office (including point screening) of the 2023 May 1st new film pre-sale exceeded 103 million. Among them, "King of the Sky" is currently riding the dust with a pre-sale box office of 68.159 million yuan, "So many years" is temporarily ranked second with a pre-sale box office of 15.03 million yuan, and the third place is "Unfamiliar Life Road", with a pre-sale box office of 11.235 million yuan.
Judging from the publicity and pre-heating, the films of May 1st can be roughly divided into three categories:
The first is a film for recording, and it is also the most popular "King of the Sky" in May 1st. In the professional edition of the Lighthouse, the King of the Sky has attracted more than 860,000 people, ranking first in the May 1 movie list. The King of the Sky is directed by Liu Xiaoshi, with Gui Guan and Liu Xiaoshi as screenwriters, starring YiBo, Hu Jun and Yu Shi, and Zhou Dongyu as special stars. The film focuses on the new era air force test pilots for the first time, revealing the story behind the birth of the most advanced fighter.
On April 23, I saw the friends circle of the relevant staff send it. The premiere of "King of the Sky" was made for 28 times, and the live effect was particularly good, not only with big scenes, but also with real feelings.
Secondly, it is the genre films that can hit 500 million box office and have clear goals, namely "So Many Years", "Countdown Love You" and "Unfamiliar Road in Life".
Among them, "So Many Years" and "Countdown Love You" are direct competitors, and it is possible that only one film has the last laugh. "So Many Years" is a love movie directed by Ji Zhuqing and starring Steven Zhang and Qian Sun. It is adapted from the novel "So Many Years" of the same name in the series of "Zhenhua Middle School" in Chang ‘an in August, and it is very popular at present. And Countdown Love You has more stars, starring Chen Feiyu, Zhou Ye, Xiaotang Zhao, Sun Tianyu, etc., but after the official announcement, it was caught in a plagiarism storm-so it is difficult to predict which of these two films will become a dark horse at the box office and maintain the high-light performance of the May 1 ST romantic film.
It’s hard to predict the box office performance of Unfamiliar Life. Tingdong Film and Xiaoxing Yi are hardly box office guarantees, but they are also nerve knives. Qiao Shan and Mary can look forward to the performance of traffic stars and traffic online celebrity, but they also have doubts. I hope this comedy can also have a good box office performance, giving the audience under great pressure a space to let go.
Third, others. The box office of Out of Fire and "Check the Storm" is expected to be difficult to be in deus ex on May 1 ST, but it is also courageous to enter this period with such positive themes to meet the market test; In addition, there are seven animated family movies released in May 1st, but from the perspective of ip influence and past performance, the most popular GG Bond has never had a box office performance of over 100 million yuan, so the outside world has not expected too much from these films.
In addition, the box office of Nightlife in Changsha, which was announced with great momentum, is also difficult to predict. From the cast to the announcement, the sound volume of this film is quite high, but when it comes to the pre-sale box office, it is only 750,000 at present-the box office trend of this city with strong colors and certain fans is worthy of attention.
Therefore, the expectations for the May 1st gear are actually very clear:
First of all, can "The King of the Sky", which has a good popularity and premiere reputation, break through 2 billion, or even sprint 3 billion box office, creating a box office record for the May 1st domestic film;
Secondly, can 3 ~ 4 films break the box office of 500 million, or even touch the threshold of 1 billion+? Whether the romance "So Many Years" and "Countdown Love You" continue the tradition of high box office of romance films, or the comedy "Unfamiliar Road in Life" is worth looking forward to;
Of course, on the basis of these expectations, the box office performance of the May Day holiday will definitely return to the level before the epidemic or even catch up; Of course, we should also have a more rational understanding of the movie market of the May 1st file. Since 2023, many young people’s first choice for holidays is to travel, which should also have a certain impact on the May 1st file, but it will also extend the popularity of the May 1st file to around mid-May, which is also one of the changes in the movie schedule in recent years.
Conclusion:
In 2023, the key to the film market is recovery and growth. The Spring Festival films Manjianghong and Wandering Earth 2 both achieved high box office, and later, Keep You Safe, Journey of Bells and Slam Dunk Master continued the popularity of the film market. However, it is undeniable that it is still very challenging for the total box office of movies to return to the level before the epidemic. The May 1 ST file is a tough battle for the China film market-as the saying goes, "tiger head, bear waist and phoenix tail". Whether the summer file can be hardened or not is worth looking forward to.
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